Of this weekends 4 games, 3 are rematches, and all 4 look to be very compelling...
Denver Broncos (9-8) at New England Patriots (13-3)
While no one expected this to be one of the AFC Divisional matchup's, that's what we've got. The Broncos arrived here versus New England via Tim Tebow and what I called the "Miracle at Mile High." On the first play of overtime, Tim Tebow hit Demaryius Thomas on a short 10 yard drag route, in which Thomas then took an additional 70 yards to win the game 29-23. The Patriots got here via the arm of Tom Brady, who threw for 5,235 yards this year, and helped lead the Patriots to a 13-3 record, despite having one of the league's worst defenses. While the Patriots pass defense finished 31st in the league, Brady and his offense picked up the slack with the 2nd best passing attack, just behind Drew Brees and the Saints.
In the rematch of these two teams, I'm afraid we could see a lot of what we saw in the first match-up, which the Patriots won 41-23 in Denver. That would be a close game for the first quarter and a half, then Tom Terrific and company take over. While the Patriot secondary may not be top notch, they may be able to do just enough to force Tebow into terrible decisions. While he had his career best game throwing last week, I don't think he'll be able to match that performance again this week. Knowing Bill Belichick and how he prepares, him and his staff will create several looks Tebow hasn't seen, and should be able to force a few careless throws, resulting in turnovers.
On the other side of the ball, I look for a tough Denver defense to get after Tom Brady. With Elvis Dumervil on one side and rookie sensation, Von Miller, on the other side, I'm expecting to see tons of blitz packages from Dennis Allen's defense. In the first matchup they only sacked Brady twice and hit him a total of three times. If they want to keep this game close at all, they better get after Brady, and get after him quick, or it could be another huge day for Brady and company. It'll also be interesting to see how Brady looks to get his 2 favorite targets, Wes Welker and Rob Gronkowski involved as they were fairly quiet in the first matchup, while Aaron Hernandez ran loose. If Brady gets Gronk and Welker involved early and often, look out, because I'm not sure the Broncos can stop that train. With Eric Decker out after taking a crushing hit from Steelers LB James Harrison, and Brian Dawkins still suffering from a neck issue, the Broncos may not have enough to pull off a second straight shocker.
Prediction: New England: 34 Denver: 10
New Orleans Saints (14-3) at San Francisco 49ers (13-3)
In Saturday's other divisional playoff game, we are seeing the high powered New Orleans Saints visit the stingy San Francisco 49ers. In my opinion, this is setting up to be the best game of the weekend, as we see the top offense have to leave it's comfort zone of the Mercedes-Benz Superdome and head west to face one of the top defenses in the NFL.
Led by Drew Brees, the high octane offense of the Saints will look to do what just one other team did versus the 49ers at home, and that's win. Only the Dallas Cowboys, in Week 2, beat the 49ers at home and even that was a 27-24 loss in OT. Brees will look to sling it all over the field to his tight end, Jimmy Graham, but also his other targets, Marques Colston, Devery Henderson, and Robert Meachem. Not only will Brees want to get the ball to those 4 guys, he'll look to hit Darren Sproles coming out of the backfield. An integral part of their red zone offense, will miss his 2nd straight week, and that is Lance Moore, who's out with a hamstring injury. While the Saints ground game isn't too shabby either, the San Francisco defense has only allowed 1 rush TD all year, and isn't even giving up 80 yards on the ground, per game, and may force the Saints to rely on the pass even more.
When the Saints offense is on the sidelines, they will look to their rush defense to stop 1200 yard runner, Frank Gore, who's headed to his 4th Pro Bowl. Led by Jo-Lonn Dunbar and Jon Vilma, the Saints will need to put Alex Smith and the Niner offense in a spot where they must throw the ball. If the Saints can jump on the 49ers early and take Frank Gore pretty much out of the game plan, they can win this game. That still may not be enough, as Alex Smith, finally was able to have a productive year, and put the "bust" comments aside. He will look to get the ball to Michael Crabtree and also his star-studded tight end Vernon Davis. If he is able to do that, the Saints D might just be in trouble. The biggest issue the 49ers will have to overcome, if they expect to win Saturday is scoring TD's in the red zone. Often this year, the offense has gone into a funk, and settled for 3 points, after getting in the red zone and it may come back to haunt them this weekend. The Saints must also overcome a thing that's haunted them this year, and that's the outdoors. While the forecast looks to be calm and clear tomorrow, the Saints and Drew Brees have still had their issues outside of the 'Dome.
Led by Drew Brees, the high octane offense of the Saints will look to do what just one other team did versus the 49ers at home, and that's win. Only the Dallas Cowboys, in Week 2, beat the 49ers at home and even that was a 27-24 loss in OT. Brees will look to sling it all over the field to his tight end, Jimmy Graham, but also his other targets, Marques Colston, Devery Henderson, and Robert Meachem. Not only will Brees want to get the ball to those 4 guys, he'll look to hit Darren Sproles coming out of the backfield. An integral part of their red zone offense, will miss his 2nd straight week, and that is Lance Moore, who's out with a hamstring injury. While the Saints ground game isn't too shabby either, the San Francisco defense has only allowed 1 rush TD all year, and isn't even giving up 80 yards on the ground, per game, and may force the Saints to rely on the pass even more.
When the Saints offense is on the sidelines, they will look to their rush defense to stop 1200 yard runner, Frank Gore, who's headed to his 4th Pro Bowl. Led by Jo-Lonn Dunbar and Jon Vilma, the Saints will need to put Alex Smith and the Niner offense in a spot where they must throw the ball. If the Saints can jump on the 49ers early and take Frank Gore pretty much out of the game plan, they can win this game. That still may not be enough, as Alex Smith, finally was able to have a productive year, and put the "bust" comments aside. He will look to get the ball to Michael Crabtree and also his star-studded tight end Vernon Davis. If he is able to do that, the Saints D might just be in trouble. The biggest issue the 49ers will have to overcome, if they expect to win Saturday is scoring TD's in the red zone. Often this year, the offense has gone into a funk, and settled for 3 points, after getting in the red zone and it may come back to haunt them this weekend. The Saints must also overcome a thing that's haunted them this year, and that's the outdoors. While the forecast looks to be calm and clear tomorrow, the Saints and Drew Brees have still had their issues outside of the 'Dome.
Prediction: San Francisco: 24 New Orleans: 17
New York Giants (10-7) at Green Bay Packers (15-1)
In the 2nd NFC matchup, we have a rematch of what was one of the best games of the regular season. In Week 13, the Giants took Rodgers and the Packers down to the wire, before bowing out with a 38-35 loss. Rodgers who had been questioned by one, Skip Bayless, about his ability to perform late in a game, put that to rest as he took the field with a minute left and the game tied at 35. 4 plays later, Rodgers stood on the sideline as he watched Mason Crosby win the game with a field goal, silencing his critics for the moment.
While the Saints/49ers game might be the best of the weekend, this one may not be too far behind it. The Giants have come on strong, winning 4 of their last 5, including a 24-2 shellacking of the Atlanta Falcons last weekend. The resurgence of the Giants has not been just the elite play of Eli Manning, but also the front 4 of the Giants defense. Led by Jason Pierre-Paul, the D-Line has been manhandling offensive lines and crushing quarterbacks. If they plan on getting to the NFC Championship next week, they must get to Rodgers early and often, and make him uncomfortable, while scanning the field. With little to no running game, if Rodgers is hit a lot by JPP, Tuck, and Umenyiora, it could be a quick out for the Green Bay Packers title defense.
If there was ever a time for Eli Manning to add another notch to his elite status, this is his week to do it. While he will have to deal with near freezing temps at kickoff, he should be able to have his way throwing the ball against the league's worst pass defense, which allows 300 yards a game. If you add that along with the successful rushing attack, the Giants have had the last few weeks, the Giants may be able to pull out a win much like the 2007 NFC Championship game which featured temps below ZERO degrees. Last week, Bradshaw and Jacobs were able to combine for a 155 yards against the Falcons, and if they can manage anything near that production again, Eli will definitely look like an elite quarterback. Although Eli may still put up huge numbers, people must realize that the MVP and defending Super Bowl Champ is on the other sideline, and they must elevate their game even more if the Giants want to head to the NFC Championship game.
Prediction: Green Bay: 38 New York Giants: 28
Houston Texans (11-6) at Baltimore Ravens (12-4)
In this game, there will be tons of smash-mouth run plays mixed in with jaw dropping hits. The surprise Houston Texans head to Baltimore with the best runner in the league paired with a top defense. The Ravens won't be denied though as they also bring in a top running back, with Ray Rice, and a defense that is always near the top in all categories. It's another re-match as the two teams will hook up again after the Ravens won in Week 6, 29-14. This game will have a much different look as the Texans are without Matt Schaub, but will have Andre Johnson back in the lineup, for the 2nd consecutive week.
Arian Foster will look to duplicate last week's performance as he racked up 155 yards and 2 scores on the ground against the Bengals. It will be tough to do as he faces the 2nd best rush defense in the league led up front by Haloti Ngata and Terrance Cody. That's not the end of the Ravens D though as they will also bring Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, and "Ball So Hard University's" Terrell Suggs off the edges and over the top. In the season's earlier matchup, Foster struggled to get going as he only mustered 49 yards rushing but had 52 yards catching. While Foster looks to get going, it will almost be mandatory, if they expect to win, because everyone will expect to see the Ravens D be blitz happy trying to get after rookie QB TJ Yates. Yates who has struggled as of late, looked to be relaxed last week and was able to open up the playbook because of Foster's success. If they are able to make that happen again, Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels could have huge days, as the Raven D will be unsure of what's coming at them.
Wade Phillips and his revamped Houston Texans defense will have their hands full when they take the field Sunday afternoon. Led by Brian Cushing, Demeco Ryans, and Connor Barwin, they will look to slow Ray Rice, similar to Week 6, where they kept Rice in check, until the 4th quarter. Rice finished with 101 yards on the ground, but picked up 62 of those yards in the 4th quarter, as the Texans D was worn down by the Ravens up front. Another thing the Texans must look out for is Torrey Smith. Joe Flacco loves to take shots down the field in Smith's direction, and the Texans can often allow someone behind the defense and if that happens, Flacco and Smith can have an easy 6. If Rice is unable to get his yards, it can put Flacco in a jam as the Texans will look to turn up the heat and get Flacco on his back. Connor Barwin and rookie stud JJ Watt will have to be strong off the edges in both the run defense as well as passing situations.
I love my Texans, but I'm afraid the Ravens (8-0 at home) will be too much and the crowd could play a large factor in the outcome. In what could be Ray Lewis' last chance at getting a ring, the defense could play even more inspired behind Lewis, and if that's the case, TJ Yates could be in trouble and on his back often.
Prediction: Baltimore: 24 Houston: 14 (I HOPE I'M WRONG)
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